Thursday, 11 May 2017

Sydney House Prices - 2017 update

This is an update of a previous 2015 blog post:
http://blog.zorangagic.com/2015/06/sydney-house-prices-to-income-ratio.html

Updated data from:
Sydney House Prices: https://www.domain.com.au/news/domain-property-reports/
Variable Home Loan Rateshttp://www.rba.gov.au/statistics/tables/index.html (See F5)
Wages (based on male earning x 52 weeks): http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mf/6302.0
Wages growth: http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mf/6345.0

See spreadsheets  here and here




Wages growth 1.9% and declining trend for years:

Census makes it official: young Australians are priced out of home market:



We have had a major stock market crash every decade, see S&P 500 data below:
TopBottomCrashReturn Duration
Jul 15, 1957Oct 22, 1957-20.70%3 Months
Dec 12, 1961Jun 26, 1962-28.00%6 Months
Feb 9, 1966Oct 7, 196622.20%8 Months
Nov 29, 1968May 26, 197036.10%18 Months
Jan 5, 1973Oct 3, 1974-48.40%21 Months
Nov 28, 1980Aug 12, 1982-27.10%20 Months
Aug 25, 1987Dec 4, 1987-33.50%3 Months
Mar 24, 2000Oct 9, 2002-49.10%31 Months
Oct 9, 2007Mar 9, 2009-56.80%17 Months
When stock market crashes it is usually followed by period of uncertainty and higher level of unemployment. What will happen to Sydney house prices when we have the next major stock market crash?

Data:
YearMedian Sydney HouseWageRatioVariable Home Loan RateDeposit (30% of median)Mortgage AmountMonthly Mortgage Mortgage as percent of Wage
1960$9,500$2,9233.35$2,850$6,650$38.8815.96%
1961$7,500$2,9982.55.5$2,250$5,250$32.2412.90%
1962$9,240$2,9923.15.5$2,772$6,468$39.7215.93%
1963$11,390$3,0033.85$3,417$7,973$46.6118.63%
1964$12,030$3,0793.95.13$3,609$8,421$49.8719.44%
1965$12,700$3,19345.38$3,810$8,890$53.9620.28%
1966$13,310$3,37045.38$3,993$9,317$56.5520.14%
1967$13,950$3,5983.95.38$4,185$9,765$59.2719.77%
1968$15,120$3,81245.38$4,536$10,584$64.2420.22%
1969$16,380$4,1603.95.88$4,914$11,466$73.0421.07%
1970$17,750$4,2004.27.25$5,325$12,425$89.8125.66%
1971$20,990$4,4824.77.25$6,297$14,693$106.2028.43%
1972$23,460$4,6235.17$7,038$16,422$116.0730.13%
1973$27,130$6,1364.47$8,139$18,991$134.2226.25%
1974$31,480$7,6864.18.38$9,444$22,036$175.6627.43%
1975$33,960$8,8663.810.13$10,188$23,772$218.2029.53%
1976$36,430$9,9373.79.88$10,929$25,501$229.5727.72%
1977$38,810$10,8843.69.88$11,643$27,167$244.5726.96%
1978$42,770$11,7833.69.38$12,831$29,939$259.0826.39%
1979$50,190$12,2414.19.13$15,057$35,133$297.9729.21%
1980$68,160$13,4585.19.88$20,448$47,712$429.5338.30%
1981$78,110$16,7864.711.5$23,433$54,677$555.7739.73%
1982$78,630$19,2564.113.5$23,589$55,041$641.5839.98%
1983$80,610$20,4933.912.5$24,183$56,427$615.2536.03%
1984$87,470$22,2203.911.5$26,241$61,229$622.3733.61%
1985$91,280$23,5873.912$27,384$63,896$672.9734.24%
1986$99,280$25,4073.915.5$29,784$69,496$917.1743.32%
1987$104,660$26,9103.915.5$31,398$73,262$966.8743.12%
1988$136,390$29,0634.713.5$40,917$95,473$1,112.8845.95%
1989$188,900$30,9876.117$56,670$132,230$1,901.2073.63%
1990$185,750$31,200616.5$55,725$130,025$1,818.0769.93%
1991$189,090$34,0185.613$56,727$132,363$1,492.8452.66%
1992$196,320$34,5755.710.5$58,896$137,424$1,297.5345.03%
1993$197,250$35,3605.69.5$59,175$138,075$1,206.3640.94%
1994$206,720$36,1615.78.75$62,016$144,704$1,189.6739.48%
1995$210,060$38,6315.410.5$63,018$147,042$1,388.3443.13%
1996$220,000$39,6815.59.75$66,000$154,000$1,372.3541.50%
1997$241,000$41,0285.97.2$72,300$168,700$1,213.9535.51%
1998$272,000$42,5466.46.7$81,600$190,400$1,309.4936.93%
1999$296,000$44,7046.66.5$88,800$207,200$1,399.0337.55%
2000$337,000$46,8477.27.8$101,100$235,900$1,789.5745.84%
2001$365,000$49,9157.36.8$109,500$255,500$1,773.3542.63%
2002$452,000$51,9018.76.55$135,600$316,400$2,146.2549.62%
2003$519,000$53,5249.76.55$155,700$363,300$2,464.3955.25%
2004$552,000$54,54810.17.05$165,600$386,400$2,743.3360.35%
2005$528,000$58,78197.3$158,400$369,600$2,683.4154.78%
2006$526,800$59,6088.87.55$158,040$368,760$2,737.1155.10%
2007$532,600$62,3848.58.05$159,780$372,820$2,889.8455.59%
2008$546,000$65,0368.49.45$163,800$382,200$3,325.9961.37%
2009$551,200$68,77585.8$165,360$385,840$2,439.0242.56%
2010$629,900$70,36197.4$188,970$440,930$3,229.8155.08%
2011$649,000$72,23897.8$194,700$454,300$3,446.3957.25%
2012$646,700$77,2988.46.85$194,010$452,690$3,156.3349.00%
2013$690,400$77,9648.96.2$207,120$483,280$3,173.1348.84%
2014$811,000$83,8199.75.95$243,300$567,700$3,640.3752.12%
2015$916,430$86,75210.65.45$274,929$641,501$3,920.2554.23%
2016$1,021,968$88,11411.65.4$306,590$715,378$4,350.4359.25%
2017$1,151,565$89,78812.85.3$345,470$806,096$4,854.3264.88%

Here are some real estate ads from 1972:

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