Monday, 14 May 2018

Top car companies

Revenue FY2016 (in billions of US$):
https://www.statista.com/statistics/232958/revenue-of-the-leading-car-manufacturers-worldwide/
 
http://www.jato.com/global-car-sales-2-4-2017-due-soaring-demand-europe-asia-pacific-latin-america/

Profit and Sales:
http://www.dw.com/en/big-carmakers-big-profits/a-19480709?xtref=https%253A%252F%252Fwww.google.com.au%252F


Pre-tax profit margin FY2016:
  • Ferrari 19.34%
  • BAIC 13.14% (China)
  • Geely (owns Volvo) 11.56%
  • Subaru 10.82%
  • BMW 9.8%
  • Suzuki 9.31%
  • Renault/Nissan 8.24%
  • Toyota 7.94%
  • Daimler (Mercedes) 7.88%
  • BYD 7.03%
  • GM 7.02%
  • Honda 6.02%
  • Hyundai 5.96%
  • Ford 4.48%
  • PSA Peugot Citroen 4.34%
  • Mazda 3.99%
  • Tata 3.45%
  • Fiat Chrysler 2.52%
  • Volkswagen 1.75

Tesla vehicles delivered worldwide:
Tesla revenue:
Tesla gross margin:

Model 3 breakdown of component costs:
  • 40% Battery
  • 14% Electronics
  • 11% Suspension
  • 11% Interior
  • 10% High voltage motor
  • 8% Exterior


Tesla could already be profitable if they chose to be a niche car maker in the luxury market as they would not need to fund very expensive development of their mass market, low cost Model 3 nor would Tesla need aggressive expansion of its Supercharger network or expensive Gigafactory for batteries.

But that's not the plan. It's never been the plan. Model 3 has always been the end goal: an affordable EV with sufficient performance to satisfy mainstream consumers. Tesla have chosen to lead the world of electric vehicle and have extremely ambitious plan to produce 500,000 cars/year starting in 2018. I believe this is mission impossible yet they will yet there in time.

Assume that Tesla can sell the following starting Q3 2018 per quarter:
  • 14,000 Model S at average selling price of $75,000
  • 12,000 Model X at average selling price of $100,000
  • 60,000 Model 3 at average selling price of $50,000 per quarter
  • Hence total volume is 86,000/quarter and total revenue is $5.25B/quarter
  • Extrapolating above volume 344,000 /year and revenue $21B/year
In one year they have potential to build more cars than than they did in the entire Tesla history.

There is a striking relationship between the sales trajectories of Elon Musk's Tesla and Henry Ford's early Model T - Tesla now on track to produce 500,000 cars/year before 2020:

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