Zoran's Blog: Tesla take 50% of US small luxury market, BMW, Mercedes and Audi get disrupted

https://evobsession.com/tesla-to-take-up-to-50-of-us-small-luxury-market-bmw-mercedes-audi-get-disrupted/

Note below is for Q3/Q4:

Actual Sales:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1hGUj_cw1L6Xv54QfoEMG1iHlI52lcbt5prnAhVI-7pI/edit#gid=1108620990

	TeslaModel 3	Mercedes C-Class	Audi A4	BMW 3 Series	Lexus IS	Total
Nov-17	395	6,001	2690	6181	2458	17250
Dec-17	1,120	6,500	3916	5556	2777	19500
Jan-18	1,780	4,419	2024	4551	1447	13850
Feb-18	2,480	3,947	2331	4255	1524	14350
Mar-18	3,920	4,984	3296	4845	2312	18600
Apr-18	4,750	5,148	3126	3550	1816	18000
May-18	5,860	5,419	3472	3428	2180	19500

https://twitter.com/Tesla/status/1004118655230078977

In a survey of 937 people that ordered or reserved Tesla Model 3 we have the following data:

10% previously owned BMW
5% previously owned Audi
3% previously owned Acura
3% previously owned Lexus
2% previously owned Mercedes Benz
2% previously owned Infiniti

Hence a total of 25% of owners from the luxury compact cars segment (or even more expensive segment) moved to Tesla Model 3:

Other was:

Don't own a car
Pontiac
2000 Chevrolette Lumina 4 door sedan, 2003 Chevrolette ZR2 pickup, 2008 Smart Fortwo
Scion tC
Scion
Mitsubishi
Saab
Lincolin
Smart
Holden Volt
Mitsubishi
Focus 2012
Motorcycle
Skoda
Skoda
MINI
Skoda
Mini
Pontiac
Saab
Mini
Pontiac
Nobe
First car
Prius
first car - will never own a gas car
Mini Cooper
Saturn
MINI
Scion tC
Hummer
MINI Cooper
Saab
Lotus Elise
Holden (Australia)
Nothing
Saturn
Mitsubishi
None
Mini
Mini Cooper Clubman S
Mitsubishi Evolution Lancer
Bentley
First car
Skoda

The Tesla Model 3 is a green electric car, is very quick at 4.6second 0-60mph and is the most innovative affordable cars in decades. It also has a very good price compared to other luxury compact cars in the segment with the following standard features:

18" wheels
Navigation with traffic information
Reversing camera
Blind spot detection
Park distance control
WiFi and LTE
Keyless entry
Voice control
Automatic emergency braking
Front collision warning
Side collision warning
Software upgrades

Even without the $7,500 US federal tax credit it is lower cost than traditional luxury compact cars. Currently Tesla has the following estimated production for Tesla Model 3:

Tesla is only getting started, they are rapidly increasing production of the Tesla Model 3 and Elon expects to reach 5,000/week (or 20,000+/month) by July. This is expected to grow to 10,000/week by 2019 or 500,000/year.

If Tesla produce 20,000/month or 240,000/year and assuming 10% of buyers were previously BMW owners then we can assume BMW will decrease sales by 24,000 cars and assuming average cost per car of $50,000 then they would potentially lose revenue of 24,000 x $50,000 = $1.2 billion due to Tesla Model 3 sales. This is still small compared to BMW's global revenue of 99 billion euros, yet if BMW do no release an electric car that is competitive and similarly priced offering then they will lose even further market share. Same applies to other car companies.

There is a striking relationship between the sales trajectories of Elon Musk's Tesla and Henry Ford's early Model T - Tesla now on track to produce 500,000 cars/year before 2020: