Thursday, 28 February 2019

Australia not on track to meet 2030 Paris emissions target

The Labour government introduced the carbon tax in 2012 which aimed to reduce the greenhouse gas emissions in Australia. 

During 2013 the federal election the Liberal–National coalition ran a scare campaign against the carbon tax:
The election was won by Liberal–National coalition and they promptly revoked the carbon tax in 2014. 

In 2015 the Paris climate change agreement was adopted. The Paris agreement sets in place a durable and dynamic framework for all countries to take climate action from 2020 with the goal hold average temperature increase to well below 2°C. Australia has set target to reduce emissions by 26-28 per cent below 2005 levels by 2030, which builds on our 2020 target of reducing emissions by five per cent below 2000 levels.
Yet even though Australia signed the Paris climate agreement the Australian government did not not take appropriate action. In 2017 the treasurer of Australia, Scott Morrison, came to House of Representatives with a lump of coal. “This is coal,” the treasurer said triumphantly, brandishing the trophy as if he’d just stumbled across an exotic species previously thought to be extinct.

“Don’t be afraid,” he said,“don’t be scared.”. Scott Morrison believes coal is good for Australia, ignoring the obvious climate change implications:

Since the removal of the carbon tax our greenhouse gas emissions have risen and there are no plans to move our economy to lower carbon emissions:
We have overwhelming evidence that our current carbon emissions have not reduced, they are increasing. Yet now our prime minister Scott Morison claims  that Australia will meet its Paris Agreement commitment “in a canter”, after revealing carried-over 367 Mt worth of C02 credits  from first and second Kyoto agreements will be used to help the nation meet Australia's 2030 target. 

This is purely an accounting trick to use dodgy credits instead of actually cutting pollution, the government is not in any way helping climate change. If Australia is genuine about reducing our carbon emissions as per the Paris agreement we should be planning to be below 450 Mt/year of C02 emissions by 2030 instead we will be most likely above 600 Mt/year by 2030.


Baby boomers passing the world to the next generation:

Update 15/3/2019: Student strikes are sending a very powerful message, and getting climate change in the headlines again is great before federal election:

Update 110/5/2019: Greenpeace - Dirty Power: Big Coal’s network of influence over the coalition government:

Update 30/9/2019: Fact Check - PM Scott Morrison claims in UN speech " Australia is "taking real action on climate change and we are getting results":

In 2018, Australia produced 534 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent, up 4.3 per cent from 512 million tonnes produced in 2013. According to the most recent official forecasts, annual emissions will reach 540 million tonnes in 2020.

The second Kyoto target, negotiated in Doha, Qatar in 2012, requires Australia to cut emissions to 5 per cent below 2000 levels by 2020. A simple calculation, then, would suggest emissions would need to be no more than 524 million tonnes in 2020 to reach this target. Australia put the "carry-over" from the over-achievement of the first Kyoto period at 128 million tonnes. As a consequence, the department has estimated Australia will have reduced its emissions by some 376 million tonnes more than required over the eight years to 2020, thereby meeting its Kyoto obligations. This is consistent with Mr Morrison's claim.


During his UN speed Scott Morrison said "Our latest estimates show both emissions per person and the emissions intensity of the economy are at their lowest levels in 29 years.". 
This is correct. Because Australia's population has been increasing, emissions per capita have been falling, and are currently at the lowest levels since 1990.

Dr Hugh Saddler, an honorary associate professor at ANU's Crawford School of Public Policy put it: "The atmosphere doesn't care how many people are contributing to emissions; it's the total quantity of emissions that matters."

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