Coalition will win election

US statistician Nate Silver successfully predicted 49/50 states during 2008 election, then in 2012 successful predicted 50/50 states using big data gathered from multiple opinion polls. Silver wasn't the only person to do this, just the most famous. Simon Jackman, an Australian academic at Stanford University:

http://jackman.stanford.edu/blog/

He is suggestion that ALP have virtually no chance of winning the election....now only 20%-25% chance of ALP winning election:

He is predicting that ALP will only win 61/150 seats.


Update 15/8/2013:
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2013/labor-to-lose-by-22-seats-new-analysis-20130815-2rynj.html
Here AFR statisticians Kaighin McColl and Leng Lee predicts Labour will only win 63 seats 

Simon Jackman update prediction of only 59 Labour seats.


Update 24/8/2013:
http://jackman.stanford.edu/oz/2013/bettingMarketExtras/individualSeats/graphs/plotMarginal.pdf