https://industry.gov.au/Office-of-the-Chief-Economist/Publications/Documents/aes/2016-australian-energy-statistics.pdf
In 2014–15 total electricity generation in Australia increased by nearly 2 per cent, after three consecutive years of decline to 252 terawatt hours (908 petajoules) in 2014–15, still below the peak of 254 terawatt hours in 2010–11.
Coal remained the major fuel source for electricity generation in 2014–15, with its share in the fuel mix increasing to 63 percent, up from 61 per cent in 2013– 14. Coal-fired generation increased in Victoria, South Australia and Queensland in 2014–15, with brown coal-fired generation rising by 11 percent, and black coal by 2 per cent. This increase followed seven consecutive years of decline in black coal-fired generation and five in brown. The switch back to coal reflects reduced water availability for hydro generation, and higher prices for gas. It also coincides with the removal of the carbon price. Natural gas-fired generation decreased by 4 per cent in 2014–15, to account for 21 per cent of Australia’s electricity generation. Generation fell in all states except Queensland, where there was an increase of 18 per cent. This general decline reflects the closure of some gas-fired power stations, such as Tamar Valley in Tasmania, and higher gas prices
Baseload energy comes from high polluting, ageing coal fired generators. 75% of Australia’s existing coal generator fleet is passed its design life:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_power_stations_in_Australia
http://nationalmap.gov.au/renewables/#http://static.aremi.nicta.com.au/cec1.json&activeTabId=Legends (live view of power generation/transmission)
National Electricity Market:
https://www.aemo.com.au/Electricity/National-Electricity-Market-NEM
https://www.aemo.com.au/-/media/Files/PDF/National-Electricity-Market-Fact-Sheet.pdf
Australian Energy Market Operator Prices:
http://www.aemo.com.au/Electricity/National-Electricity-Market-NEM/Data-dashboard#average-price-table
Live Australia Electricity Generation Data:
http://reneweconomy.com.au/nem-watch/
South Australia is currently getting 66% of its electricity from renewables:
Coal in Australia:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coal_in_AustraliaAustralia is the fifth largest producer of coal, and by proportion exported, Australia is the second largest exporter of coal in the world with most of the exports going to Japan. Total production of bituminous coal in Australia in the financial year 2010-11 was 405 million tonnes (Mt.), down from 471 Mt. in 2009-10.
Coal exports are Australia’s second-largest source of export income, after iron ore exports. In 2011, coal exports were worth 47 billion Australian dollars, or $USD 47.8 billion, with $USD 15.6 billion coming from exports of thermal coal for power stations.Coking coal generated $22.4 billion of export revenue in 2012/13 financial year with thermal coal bringing in $16.1 billion during the same period.
Clean coal does not exist:
https://www.engadget.com/2017/03/30/clean-coal-myth-trump-carbon-capture-energy-no/
Australia household electricity prices:
https://www.energycouncil.com.au/analysis/worldwide-electricity-prices-how-does-australia-compare/
AGL, Origin and Energy Australia are gouging electricity retail prices: Grattan:
http://www.afr.com/business/energy/electricity/agl-origin-and-energy-australia-are-gouging-electricity-retail-prices-20170313-guwrpi
"The profit margins earned by electricity retailers in Victoria appear excessively high and have been rising without apparent justification," the report says.
Cost of Electricity by Source:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cost_of_electricity_by_source
According to the Australia Power Generation Technology Report from the CSIRO:
http://www.co2crc.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/LCOE_Report_final_web.pdf
Current Costs:
Year 2030 costs:
From the above it is clear that renewable energy can be very cost effective, hence government planning long term must consider renewable energy rather than much more expensive clean coal. Replacing our existing coal power with more coal power just doesn’t make sense; either on environmental or economic grounds.
Electricity can be transmitted over high power lines over long distances hence in a well coordinated national grid can greatly decrease risks of an individual renewable power generation plant unable to be used (no sun or no wind). That combined with planned energy storage can greatly reduce the need for fossil based energy. For example to manage demand spikes a residential household systems could be implemented. The Tesla Powerwall 2 for instance is rated at 13.2/kWh deliverable energy and 5kW continuous power. This is probably about $1600/kW of power The average house uses an average power load of only 1/kW on a 24 hour basis, hence such a system would work even if temporarily power from renewable was not available.
Associate Professor Mark Diesendorf who is Deputy Director at Institute of Environmental Studies at UNSW suggests that renewables can be used without baseload of fossil fuels:
https://theconversation.com/baseload-power-is-a-myth-even-intermittent-renewables-will-work-13210
Australia has abundant solar energy resources, with the highest average solar radiation per square metre of any continent in the world. The amount of solar radiation falling on Australia each year (approximately 58 million petajoules) is approximately a hundred times the world’s total annual energy consumption (Source: IEA 2009 World Energy Outlook and ABARE Australian Energy Resource Assessment).
Australia also has some of the best wind resources in the world. Australia's wind energy resources are located mainly in the southern parts of the continent (which lie in the path of the westerly wind flow known as the 'roaring 40s') and reach a maximum around Bass Strait . The largest wind resource is generated by the passage of low pressure and associated frontal systems whose northerly extent and influence depends on the size of the frontal system. Winds in northern Australia are predominantly generated by the monsoon and trade wind systems. Large-scale topography such as the Great Dividing Range in eastern Australia exert significant steering effects on the winds, channelling them through major valleys or deflecting or blocking them from other areas (Coppin et al. 2003).
Yet our coalition government has no intention of moving to clean energy, our treasurer Scott Morrison brings a lump of coal to Parliament to show us who really runs this country, the powerful mining lobby...never mind the weather:
Furthermore the government wants the Clean Energy Finance Corporation (CEFC), established to fund zero or very low carbon emissions technology, to be able to fund coal projects even though this prohibited by the act in sect 62:
https://www.legislation.gov.au/Details/C2012A00104
Academics argue that the NEM has been a failure and should be returned to public ownership:
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-03-03/renationalising-electricity-grid-could-fix-failure-of-system/8320910
http://www.flinders.edu.au/fms/AITI/Documents/AITIQuiggin_Paper_Grid_Renationalisation.pdf
Electricity reform in Australia has been a comprehensive failure since the creation of the National Electricity Market (NEM) in the 1990s. None of the objectives of lower prices, greater system reliability or environmental sustainability have been met. The core aim of policy should be a genuine National Electricity Grid, driven by the goal of providing secure, affordable electricity to Australian households and businesses while reducing and ultimately eliminating emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2). The current NEM is not designed for this purpose and cannot achieve it. Rather, it is the product of a late 20th century ideological project, in which it was hoped that market incentives could outperform rational system design and management in the electricity supply industry. Nearly 20 years of unsatisfactory experience has proved that this is not the case, even for a traditional system based on coal-fired generation.
The physical network is a natural monopoly which means the market is best served by a single set of wires or pipes. In the absence of regulation, a monopolist will charge prices that are too high, with the result that they will not perform their signalling functions properly. Consumers will get less than they should at a higher price, profits will be excessive and investment will be distorted.
FactCheck Q&A: is coal still cheaper than renewables as an energy source?
https://theconversation.com/factcheck-qanda-is-coal-still-cheaper-than-renewables-as-an-energy-source-81263
Update 9/4/2018 - Fossil Fuels Squeezed by Plunge in Cost of Renewables, BNEF Says:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-03-28/fossil-fuels-squeezed-by-plunge-in-cost-of-renewables-bnef-says
https://reneweconomy.com.au/solar-wind-batteries-killing-market-new-gas-plants-57621/
A new report published today by Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF) finds that solar PV and onshore wind power were 18% more competitive in 2017 – boosting renewables’ efficacy, affordability and flexibility across a global scale.
With battery storage technology also delivering impressive cost reductions, the holy trinity of PV, wind and storage is serving to loosen fossil fuels’ grip on the global energy mix, the report finds. According to BNEF, renewables and batteries are posing three distinct threats to the fossil fuel sector, specifically in terms of offering bulk generation, supplying dispatchable generation, and providing grid and energy flexibility – all previously the preserve of fossil fuels such as coal and gas.
- A 79% price decrease in lithium-ion batteries since 2010 has had a dramatic impact on how storage technology can now support various parts of the electricity system
- Over the past nine years in which BNEF has been tracking LCOE for all energy sources, it has recorded a 77% reduction in the cost of solar PV, compared to “only very modest reductions” for nuclear, coal and gas.
- Cost will fall dramatically in coming years as wind and solar costs continue to fall – solar by another 62 per cent and wind by another 48 per cent by 2040 – making them the cheapest form of bulk generation almost everywhere in the world by 2023.
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